Prey Species Results


reversible Jump on prey species

SEVM models

year handled as covariate on occ

significant alphas.. luredays, 9 eigens

yr on betas (best model)


Species:      Coyote



Metadata Summary:

N_sites N_counts N_detections rep_period iterations burnin thin
127 596 382 7 days 50000 5000 10



Reversible Jump MCMC on pre species:

covariate rev.jump.pct
Chipmunk 0.3513333
GoldenMantledGroundSquirrel 0.1962222
Woodrat 0.1406667
rodent 0.1271111
YellowBelliedMarmot 0.1175556
BeldingsGroundSquirrel 0.1011111
DouglasSquirrel 0.0915556
lagomorph 0.0733333
WhiteTailedJackrabbit 0.0691111
AmericanPika 0.0673333



WAIC

Models by WAIC:
model alphas betas WAIC
fm4 alpha_int + lureDays + MEM13 + MEM12 + MEM1 + MEM43 + MEM30 + MEM8 + MEM3 + MEM21 + MEM7 beta.int + yr2017 + yr2018 + yr2019 + yr2020 + YellowBelliedMarmot + GoldenMantledGroundSquirrel + BeldingsGroundSquirrel + Chipmunk + Woodrat 2114.054
fm1 alpha_int + lureDays + MEM13 + MEM12 + MEM1 + MEM43 + MEM30 + MEM8 + MEM3 + MEM21 + MEM7 beta.int + yr2017 + yr2018 + yr2019 + yr2020 + WhiteTailedJackrabbit + AmericanPika + DouglasSquirrel + YellowBelliedMarmot + GoldenMantledGroundSquirrel + BeldingsGroundSquirrel + Chipmunk + Woodrat + lagomorph + rodent 2115.724
fm2 alpha_int + lureDays + MEM13 + MEM12 + MEM1 + MEM43 + MEM30 + MEM8 + MEM3 + MEM21 + MEM7 beta.int + yr2017 + yr2018 + yr2019 + yr2020 + rodent + lagomorph 2115.862
fm3 alpha_int + lureDays + MEM13 + MEM12 + MEM1 + MEM43 + MEM30 + MEM8 + MEM3 + MEM21 + MEM7 beta.int + yr2017 + yr2018 + yr2019 + yr2020 + rodent 2182.621
fm5 alpha_int + lureDays + MEM13 + MEM12 + MEM1 + MEM43 + MEM30 + MEM8 + MEM3 + MEM21 + MEM7 beta.int + yr2017 + yr2018 + yr2019 + yr2020 + Chipmunk 2191.680











Reversible jump model summaries:



model: fm1
alpha significant (lureDays), 9 eigens 13 12 1 43 30 8 3 21 7, beta yr, reversible jump prey species



summary table

param covariate iters_ef mean mode hdi_89pct_lower hdi_89pct_upper bayes_P pct.density
alpha[1] alpha_int 2218 -2.247 -2.243 -2.40 -2.10 0 1.001
alpha[2] lureDays 4189 -0.400 -0.405 -0.54 -0.25 0 1.001
alpha[3] MEM13 3537 -0.365 -0.373 -0.48 -0.26 0 1.001
alpha[4] MEM12 4166 -0.288 -0.288 -0.39 -0.18 0 1.001
alpha[5] MEM1 2527 0.364 0.356 0.22 0.52 0 1.001
alpha[6] MEM43 4098 -0.212 -0.208 -0.32 -0.10 0 1.0009
alpha[7] MEM30 4396 0.191 0.194 0.09 0.28 0.00111 1.0008
alpha[8] MEM8 3959 0.201 0.208 0.07 0.33 0.01392 0.9989
alpha[9] MEM3 3654 -0.201 -0.198 -0.34 -0.07 0.00798 0.9999
alpha[10] MEM21 4500 -0.186 -0.177 -0.29 -0.08 0.00355 1.0004
alpha[11] MEM7 3538 -0.212 -0.21 -0.33 -0.10 0 1.001
beta[1] beta.int 323 4.945 4.491 1.77 8.43 0 1.001
beta[2] yr2017 2298 0.820 -0.086 -3.36 5.77 0.99793 0.4094
beta[3] yr2018 2795 1.594 1.189 -3.00 6.26 0.84244 0.7263
beta[4] yr2019 422 -2.687 -2.682 -6.77 0.61 0.16244 0.9396
beta[5] yr2020 2195 1.609 1.279 -3.12 6.57 0.85184 0.733
beta[6] WhiteTailedJackrabbit 3389 0.041 err -0.01 0.55 err err
beta[7] AmericanPika 2826 0.033 err -0.40 0.05 err err
beta[8] DouglasSquirrel 1294 0.072 err -0.33 0.91 err err
beta[9] YellowBelliedMarmot 2895 0.115 err 0.00 1.61 err err
beta[10] GoldenMantledGroundSquirrel 418 0.400 err -0.16 3.48 err err
beta[11] BeldingsGroundSquirrel 2844 0.014 err -1.40 0.02 err err
beta[12] Chipmunk 626 0.802 0.004 0.00 3.81 0.8214 0.6689
beta[13] Woodrat 3234 0.242 err -0.27 2.16 err err
beta[14] lagomorph 4064 0.036 err -0.14 0.39 err err
beta[15] rodent 2279 0.119 err 0.00 1.47 err err
beta.switch[1] NA 3257 0.069 err 0.00 1.00 err err
beta.switch[2] NA 3560 0.067 err 0.00 1.00 err err
beta.switch[3] NA 2901 0.092 err 0.00 1.00 err err
beta.switch[4] NA 2925 0.118 err 0.00 1.00 err err
beta.switch[5] NA 769 0.196 err 0.00 1.00 err err
beta.switch[6] NA 3827 0.101 err 0.00 1.00 err err
beta.switch[7] NA 972 0.351 0 0.00 1.00 1 err
beta.switch[8] NA 2640 0.141 err 0.00 1.00 err err
beta.switch[9] NA 4165 0.073 err 0.00 1.00 err err
beta.switch[10] NA 3856 0.127 err 0.00 1.00 err err
psi.ind.beta NA 1452 0.197 0.055 0.00 0.52 0 0.9634
psi.out[1] NA 796 0.969 0.997 0.90 1.00 0 1.0009
psi.out[2] NA 2347 0.969 1 0.89 1.00 0 1.0007
psi.out[3] NA 2539 0.976 1 0.89 1.00 0 1.0009
psi.out[4] NA 1076 0.700 0.667 0.50 1.00 0 1.0009
psi.out[5] NA 3058 0.987 1 0.94 1.00 0 0.9999

alpha[1]

alpha[2]

alpha[3]

alpha[4]

alpha[5]

alpha[6]

alpha[7]

alpha[8]

alpha[9]

alpha[10]

alpha[11]

beta[1]

beta[2]

beta[3]

beta[4]

beta[5]

beta[6]

beta[7]

beta[8]

beta[9]

beta[10]

beta[11]

beta[12]

beta[13]

beta[14]

beta[15]

beta.switch[1]

beta.switch[2]

beta.switch[3]

beta.switch[4]

beta.switch[5]

beta.switch[6]

beta.switch[7]

beta.switch[8]

beta.switch[9]

beta.switch[10]

psi.ind.beta

psi.out[1]

psi.out[2]

psi.out[3]

psi.out[4]

psi.out[5]







prey Model summaries:



model: fm2
alpha significant (lureDays), beta yr, 9 beta eigenvectors, rodent, lagomorph



summary table

param covariate iters_ef mean mode hdi_89pct_lower hdi_89pct_upper bayes_P pct.density
alpha[1] alpha_int 2286 -2.253 -2.267 -2.41 -2.10 0.00000 1.0010
alpha[2] lureDays 4115 -0.402 -0.393 -0.55 -0.25 0.00000 1.0010
alpha[3] MEM13 3639 -0.366 -0.364 -0.48 -0.26 0.00000 1.0010
alpha[4] MEM12 4064 -0.289 -0.282 -0.39 -0.19 0.00000 1.0010
alpha[5] MEM1 1947 0.374 0.376 0.22 0.52 0.00000 1.0010
alpha[6] MEM43 3943 -0.214 -0.216 -0.33 -0.11 0.00000 1.0009
alpha[7] MEM30 4500 0.193 0.201 0.10 0.30 0.00000 1.0008
alpha[8] MEM8 4450 0.197 0.197 0.07 0.32 0.00968 0.9996
alpha[9] MEM3 3647 -0.211 -0.201 -0.34 -0.08 0.00822 0.9998
alpha[10] MEM21 4500 -0.189 -0.180 -0.29 -0.08 0.00439 1.0006
alpha[11] MEM7 3803 -0.220 -0.216 -0.34 -0.11 0.00000 1.0010
beta[1] beta.int 486 4.810 4.793 2.03 7.79 0.00000 1.0010
beta[2] yr2017 2012 0.033 -0.568 -4.03 4.75 0.89989 0.5543
beta[3] yr2018 3113 1.887 1.473 -2.46 6.59 0.81802 0.7791
beta[4] yr2019 501 -2.617 -2.953 -6.36 1.02 0.21004 0.9294
beta[5] yr2020 2882 1.554 1.152 -2.65 6.63 0.92996 0.7216
beta[6] rodent 1531 1.121 1.011 -0.52 2.83 0.37157 0.9186
beta[7] lagomorph 1829 0.596 0.429 -0.83 2.09 0.68829 0.8185
psi.out[1] NA 777 0.972 0.997 0.91 1.00 0.00000 1.0009
psi.out[2] NA 3059 0.962 0.999 0.88 1.00 0.00000 1.0008
psi.out[3] NA 3307 0.982 1.000 0.92 1.00 0.00000 1.0004
psi.out[4] NA 1018 0.716 0.685 0.51 1.00 0.00000 1.0009
psi.out[5] NA 2871 0.981 1.000 0.91 1.00 0.00000 1.0011

alpha[1]

alpha[2]

alpha[3]

alpha[4]

alpha[5]

alpha[6]

alpha[7]

alpha[8]

alpha[9]

alpha[10]

alpha[11]

beta[1]

beta[2]

beta[3]

beta[4]

beta[5]

beta[6]

beta[7]

psi.out[1]

psi.out[2]

psi.out[3]

psi.out[4]

psi.out[5]







model: fm3
alpha significant (lureDays), beta yr, 9 beta eigenvectors, rodent



summary table

param covariate iters_ef mean mode hdi_89pct_lower hdi_89pct_upper bayes_P pct.density
alpha[1] alpha_int 3342 -1.997 -1.992 -2.13 -1.85 0.00000 1.0010
alpha[2] lureDays 3680 -0.501 -0.493 -0.65 -0.35 0.00000 1.0010
alpha[3] MEM13 3949 -0.092 -0.107 -0.27 0.08 0.62082 0.8418
alpha[4] MEM12 4202 0.031 0.028 -0.11 0.18 0.89518 0.6636
alpha[5] MEM1 4500 0.023 0.019 -0.07 0.12 0.92236 0.6733
alpha[6] MEM43 4086 0.168 0.163 0.02 0.31 0.07411 0.9903
alpha[7] MEM30 3932 -0.031 -0.033 -0.12 0.06 0.87836 0.7406
alpha[8] MEM8 3573 0.242 0.233 0.10 0.40 0.00833 1.0003
alpha[9] MEM3 3395 0.111 0.121 -0.01 0.24 0.25056 0.9532
alpha[10] MEM21 4500 0.133 0.127 0.04 0.23 0.02508 0.9982
alpha[11] MEM7 3685 -0.150 -0.143 -0.34 0.04 0.33057 0.9446
beta[1] beta.int 432 3.414 2.921 1.26 5.67 0.00000 1.0010
beta[2] yr2017 2352 1.246 0.452 -2.35 5.55 0.90974 0.7099
beta[3] yr2018 1016 -0.439 -0.868 -3.77 2.76 0.92401 0.6400
beta[4] yr2019 401 -2.771 -2.491 -5.10 -0.41 0.04371 0.9944
beta[5] yr2020 2199 1.112 -0.060 -3.15 5.60 0.99870 0.3430
beta[6] rodent 2156 0.678 0.606 -0.36 1.76 0.51627 0.9004
psi.out[1] NA 529 0.955 0.989 0.87 1.00 0.00000 1.0010
psi.out[2] NA 3563 0.969 0.999 0.89 1.00 0.00000 1.0008
psi.out[3] NA 3407 0.896 0.938 0.75 1.00 0.00000 1.0009
psi.out[4] NA 4500 0.537 0.538 0.36 0.71 0.00000 1.0010
psi.out[5] NA 2382 0.961 0.999 0.85 1.00 0.00000 1.0007

alpha[1]

alpha[2]

alpha[3]

alpha[4]

alpha[5]

alpha[6]

alpha[7]

alpha[8]

alpha[9]

alpha[10]

alpha[11]

beta[1]

beta[2]

beta[3]

beta[4]

beta[5]

beta[6]

psi.out[1]

psi.out[2]

psi.out[3]

psi.out[4]

psi.out[5]







model: fm4
alpha significant (lureDays), beta yr, 9 beta eigenvectors, YellowBelliedMarmot,
     GoldenMantledGroundSquirrel, BeldingsGroundSquirrel, Chipmunk, Woodrat



summary table

param covariate iters_ef mean mode hdi_89pct_lower hdi_89pct_upper bayes_P pct.density
alpha[1] alpha_int 3379 -2.232 -2.230 -2.38 -2.10 0.00000 1.0010
alpha[2] lureDays 3960 -0.402 -0.394 -0.55 -0.25 0.00000 1.0010
alpha[3] MEM13 3892 -0.354 -0.360 -0.46 -0.24 0.00000 1.0010
alpha[4] MEM12 4185 -0.292 -0.301 -0.39 -0.19 0.00000 1.0010
alpha[5] MEM1 3517 0.334 0.336 0.20 0.48 0.00000 1.0010
alpha[6] MEM43 4137 -0.208 -0.209 -0.31 -0.10 0.00000 1.0009
alpha[7] MEM30 4500 0.188 0.191 0.09 0.29 0.00315 1.0004
alpha[8] MEM8 3782 0.198 0.190 0.07 0.33 0.00840 1.0003
alpha[9] MEM3 4261 -0.200 -0.199 -0.33 -0.08 0.00608 1.0000
alpha[10] MEM21 4272 -0.188 -0.189 -0.29 -0.09 0.00252 1.0005
alpha[11] MEM7 3927 -0.202 -0.203 -0.31 -0.09 0.00190 1.0006
beta[1] beta.int 392 7.451 7.056 4.15 11.02 0.00000 1.0010
beta[2] yr2017 2870 1.893 1.355 -2.45 6.76 0.85029 0.7807
beta[3] yr2018 3680 2.311 1.514 -2.00 6.73 0.70707 0.8497
beta[4] yr2019 670 -3.366 -3.192 -6.10 -0.67 0.05744 0.9918
beta[5] yr2020 3707 0.791 1.118 -4.80 6.28 0.95754 0.6073
beta[6] YellowBelliedMarmot 2198 0.610 0.649 -1.34 2.63 0.85541 0.7176
beta[7] GoldenMantledGroundSquirrel 973 1.994 1.144 -0.70 5.28 0.50735 0.9172
beta[8] BeldingsGroundSquirrel 915 0.439 -0.507 -2.35 3.87 0.88354 0.4633
beta[9] Chipmunk 873 2.200 1.476 -0.11 4.95 0.23071 0.9764
beta[10] Woodrat 2633 1.585 0.928 -0.75 4.58 0.64744 0.9002
psi.out[1] NA 1106 0.969 0.996 0.91 1.00 0.00000 1.0009
psi.out[2] NA 1970 0.983 1.000 0.93 1.00 0.00000 1.0009
psi.out[3] NA 3980 0.985 1.000 0.94 1.00 0.00000 1.0013
psi.out[4] NA 2533 0.631 0.621 0.45 0.81 0.00000 1.0010
psi.out[5] NA 3681 0.994 1.000 0.97 1.00 0.00000 0.9993

alpha[1]

alpha[2]

alpha[3]

alpha[4]

alpha[5]

alpha[6]

alpha[7]

alpha[8]

alpha[9]

alpha[10]

alpha[11]

beta[1]

beta[2]

beta[3]

beta[4]

beta[5]

beta[6]

beta[7]

beta[8]

beta[9]

beta[10]

psi.out[1]

psi.out[2]

psi.out[3]

psi.out[4]

psi.out[5]







model: fm5
alpha significant (lureDays), beta yr, 9 beta eigenvectors, Chipmunk



summary table

param covariate iters_ef mean mode hdi_89pct_lower hdi_89pct_upper bayes_P pct.density
alpha[1] alpha_int 2909 -2.011 -1.991 -2.15 -1.87 0.00000 1.0010
alpha[2] lureDays 3721 -0.497 -0.477 -0.64 -0.34 0.00000 1.0010
alpha[3] MEM13 4001 -0.095 -0.089 -0.26 0.09 0.58931 0.8570
alpha[4] MEM12 4127 0.037 0.041 -0.10 0.17 0.78853 0.7062
alpha[5] MEM1 4500 0.023 0.021 -0.07 0.12 0.88222 0.6787
alpha[6] MEM43 4818 0.180 0.177 0.03 0.33 0.04642 0.9928
alpha[7] MEM30 3686 -0.016 -0.011 -0.11 0.07 0.96343 0.6186
alpha[8] MEM8 3632 0.251 0.251 0.10 0.40 0.00664 1.0004
alpha[9] MEM3 3686 0.120 0.117 0.00 0.25 0.17796 0.9662
alpha[10] MEM21 4500 0.134 0.131 0.04 0.23 0.02259 0.9983
alpha[11] MEM7 4113 -0.148 -0.147 -0.33 0.04 0.30384 0.9438
beta[1] beta.int 300 4.667 4.221 1.84 7.64 0.00000 1.0010
beta[2] yr2017 2124 0.692 -0.006 -2.99 4.89 0.99999 0.3936
beta[3] yr2018 1204 0.470 -0.361 -3.27 5.02 0.98001 0.4663
beta[4] yr2019 575 -2.954 -2.948 -5.36 -0.74 0.02474 0.9965
beta[5] yr2020 2855 1.112 -0.110 -3.19 5.94 0.99674 0.3626
beta[6] Chipmunk 335 2.275 1.300 0.06 5.69 0.18017 0.9833
psi.out[1] NA 578 0.966 0.995 0.90 1.00 0.00000 1.0010
psi.out[2] NA 3836 0.967 0.999 0.90 1.00 0.00000 1.0008
psi.out[3] NA 1639 0.934 0.999 0.80 1.00 0.00000 1.0008
psi.out[4] NA 3969 0.547 0.547 0.38 0.71 0.00000 1.0010
psi.out[5] NA 2087 0.969 1.000 0.87 1.00 0.00000 1.0007

alpha[1]

alpha[2]

alpha[3]

alpha[4]

alpha[5]

alpha[6]

alpha[7]

alpha[8]

alpha[9]

alpha[10]

alpha[11]

beta[1]

beta[2]

beta[3]

beta[4]

beta[5]

beta[6]

psi.out[1]

psi.out[2]

psi.out[3]

psi.out[4]

psi.out[5]